The Mid-Year Report
Instead of thinking about admission rates when deciding between early and regular, think about what your application will look like in the fall and what it might look like in the winter. Find your final report card from each year of high school and line them up (or get an unofficial copy of your transcript, if that's an easy task at your school). Does your program build nicely across your core subjects? Are your grades consistent? If you can answer "yes" to those questions and you have time to put together a solid application, one of the early options might be for you. If there's a dip in your grades or you haven't had an opportunity to take advanced courses (whatever your school offers) until senior year, the regular round might make more since since your mid-year report will be part of the review.
Submit when you can present your strongest application to UVA. For some students, one more semester of work on the transcript will put them in that position.